Aronian is of course a natural choice, he is the best player of those participating in Kazan, but with this knockout format I wouldn't be surprised if there will be a sensation in the end, with for example Kamsky or Mamedyarov winning.

I don't think previous head-to-head says that much. Topalov has great results against Kamsky but I think Kamsky will win that match, I wonder if Topalov hasn't started on his way out of the top ten. Mamedyarov has bad results against Gelfand but has been the better player lately and I'd bet on him in that one.

Then in Aronian-Grischuk and Kramnik-Radjabov the favourites could find it harder than most people think. Especially 67% for Aronian as winner and less than 1% for Grischuk in this unpredictable format looks too uneven. I'd guess 2-2 in both matches and then unpredictable tiebreaks. Something like Kamsky-Grischuk in the final is far from impossible.

I also looked at some past results, but between the Kazan participants. I include games since and including 2008, separating between classical and rapid/blitz as the latter may or may not become relevant. Here we go:

Gelfand-Mamedyarov classical +4=1-1, other +4=1-4
[Mamedyarov needs to survive the classical part to reach a tiebreak? He also (quite drastically) lost their Tal Memorial game which cost him sole first place. Most remarkable is the very low drawing percentage.]

Topalov-Kamsky +3=3-1 and +1-1
[but all classical games are from their previous match, where some games could have had a different result]

Aronian-Grischuk +3=6-2 and +2=2-1
[I also consider Aronian one of the favorites of the whole thing, but it isn't sooo clear that he will survive the first round!?]

Kramnik-Radjabov =1 (that's it, Corus 2008) and +2=3-1
[the database is comparatively meaningless, hence I favor Kramnik based on Elo and previous match experience]

I believe that if Carlsen were to participate in this Candidates tournament, everybody would be talking about it for a very long time. When I wanted to check the dates of this tournament on the front page of ChessVibes yesterday, I couldn't find it - it feels like, when Carlsen decided to withdraw this tournament lost a huge popularity among the chess fans.

4-game matches are lottery. You remember Kramnik lost to Adams, Adams lost to Akopian, and so on.

I hope Aronian will win the tournament, as he seems to be the one who can give Anand toughest challenge, but on the other hand his early defeat wouldn't surprise me at all.

Oh good, time for arrogant predictions! If Kramnik is in form then we'll see Anand-Kramnik v.2. If not then the winner of Aronian-Grischuk will face Topalov in the finals and probably lose, so we should see Anand-Topalov v.2.

I voted for Aronian and I think that, after him, Kramnik has the second best chance.

It will be an interesting travel for Gata Kamsky since he, as originally being a Tatar himself, will be technically at his 'homeland'.

I guess they're also overestimating the fact that he's 24 points above the next highest rated candidate (Kramnik) and 33 over the one after that (Topalov).

They're probably overestimating his results in the last 14 months or so:

+1 =11 -0 @ Linares 2010 (2753 opposition)
+1 =4 -1 @ Shanghai 2010 (2751 opposition) [only loss in 56 games: Aronian - Kramnik]
+5 =5 -0 @ Olympiad 2010 (2695 opposition)
+3 =3 -0 @ European Club Cup 2010 (2691 opposition)
+2 =7 -0 @ Tal Memorial 2010 (2752 opposition)
+3 =10 -0 @ Tata Steel 2011 (2735 opposition)

In addition to his non-classical results:

+20 =9 -9 @ World Blitz Championship 2010
+6 =5 -0 @ Amber Blindfold 2011
+4 =6 -1 @ Amber Rapid 2011
(aggregate +10 =11 -1 @ Amber Blindfold and Rapid 2011)

No, but seriously, without Anand or Carlsen, Aronian is a fairly natural choice. If anything, you should be arguing that since these matches are so short, there's a higher chance for Aronian to get *upset* by a freak loss.

This will be a Vaselin and Kramnik final altho popular opinion and tournament results seem to favor Aronian who can not beat Kramnik in a match yet.

i have no reason to believe aronian will be in contention here. whoever is voting has seriously overrated his win in monaco and his equal first performance in moscow. kramnik and topalov will battle for the right to challenge anand, and i believe kramnik will prevail and regain his crown.

You're welcome - but for me "complicated" was rather an 'overstatement', or at least most of the system makes sense to me:
- Players have several chances to qualify:
1) the World Cup which is in principle open to everyone: even I (Elo 1950) could - theoretically - qualify if I played the European Championship and made it into the top 23 :)
2) the GP series which is open to the top and subtop
3) rating spots
- The system accomodates the loser of the previous WCh match, who had to prepare and play and couldn't really think about plan B: what happens if I lose the match?? This applies to Topalov and even to Kramnik (his match against Anand took place after the start of the GP series)
Another story is how Topalov "qualified" for his match against Anand, and that he still gets the privilege of being seeded first leading to an easier draw. And Kamsky's privilege is a by-product of Topalov's privileges.

Arguably, the system is unfair to players who entered the top10 only very recently - again, this is the case not just for (Tata winner) Nakamura, but also for (Tal Memorial winner) Karjakin.

I don't know enough about most of the players here as I'm only interested in the top few but I'd put money on Aronian winning this, deservedly! And look at the polls! I believe Aronian will be our next world champion until Carlsen feels comfortable with the World Championship cycle. Except for Carlsen and Anand, Aronian is the best most solid player at the moment his progress is incredible and he may not of peaked.

Kramnik is not in form at the moment and wouldn't be surprised if he went down early, not sure what is happening to this infamous genius. Topalov is very so so at the moment so he too could go out early.

Apart from Aronian winning this I believe it could be anyones tournament for 2nd place.

It would be so nice if Aronian will win this. If Aronian win this tournament, he eventually will outperform Anand.

This may well be Gelfand's last chance. I really wosh him all the best and hope he'll make it.

Right, thanks. In the mean time I've found the official website at kazan2011.fide.com. There it says that 3 May i the 'Arrival', 4 May the 'Players Meeting / Opening Ceremony' and 5 May 'Game 1, round 1'.

Aronian should win !
unfortunately all the best players are in same side ( Aronian, Kramnik , Teimur , Grischuk ) , this is my personal opinion though.
I wish we could have shuffled them.

lets see What Kamsky does against Topalov , he lost once , can he take revenge ? other tan that I dont see any excitement in that section. I may be biased.

If Radjabov past Kramnik, than he will challenge Anand
He is the most genius (in chess) than all other except Kramnik (is about equall)

If Kramnik past Radjabov, it will interesting to see his game against (bigger chance) Aronian.

If Radjabov past i much sure he can overcome Aronian.

My predictions for the first round are:
Topalov, Mamadeyrov,Aronian and Kramnik.

Semi-Final:
Topalov, Aronian

Final winner: Aronian

Now where is MY prize money?

Thanks for information. When you said the process is complicated, that was quite an understatement!

Where can we follow the matches?

I wonder why Vasily Ivanchuck is not at all qualifed as most genius player by wildcard...

It is somewhat complicated, there were various ways to qualify:
- Topalov by losing his WCh match against Anand
- Aronian and Radjabov via the FIDE Grand Prix Series (at the start of the series in May 2008, Nakamura was world #34, Elo 2686 - not even enough to qualify for the qualifying series)
- Gelfand by winning the World Cup (Nakamura didn't participate as he played in London at the same time
- Carlsen and Kramnik by rating
- as Carlsen declined the invitation, he was replaced by Grischuk, #3 from the GP series
now the tricky part:
- Mamedyarov got an organizer wildcard (the event should have been held in Baku, but - to make a long story short - Aronian had understandable problems playing in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan still pays at least part of the expenses and kept their right to nominate a player.)
- Kamsky qualified by winning the previous World Cup and losing his match against Topalov.

Anyway, not just world #8 Nakamura, but also #6 Karjakin and world #5 Ivanchuk have to wait for the next cycle (both didn't make it via GP or World Cup)

How are the candidate chosen? Nakamura has the 8th best rank in the world, but I notice that he is not in the tournament.

Wow, Aronian is a MASSIVE favourite then! I think Mamedyarov could be something of a dark horse in this, especially as his route to the final looks somewhat 'easier' than the bottom half of the split.

As an aside, i wonder how Carlsen is feeling about his decision to withdraw now that so many super GM tournaments have been cancelled this year? Looks like he's going to be twiddling his thumbs somewhat...

The probability that some "Russian" player faces some "Bulgarian" player is very low. I am sad.

Most underestimated player at the moment could be Mamedyarov. He has 2% of the votes but against Gelfand he should be 50-50, as against the winner of Kamsky-Topalov, maybe he would even be the favourite there. And once in the final everything is possible.

On ICC handle "candidates11" they seem to say the first round will be on May 5th Thursday rather than on May 4th as you suggest. But I dont know where they got their information from. Considering that they also seem to know the time of start 7 a.m. EDT, may be their source is reliable.

I voted for Aronian because I think that an Elo advantage gives a persistent pull.

But let's not overestimate it in short KO events.

Remember Khalifman (FIDE WC 1999-2000), Ponomariov (FIDE WC 2002-2004), Kasimdzhanov (FIDE WC 2004-2005) all managed to win out against theoretically stronger opposition.

Personally I'm hoping to see Topalov-Mamedyarov come out of the hat so that they can accuse each other of cheating, as both of them have done so in the past.

& let's also remember that better players don't necessarily mean better chess. Particularly in events where the stakes are high & the most important thing is not to lose. I often prefer looking at the games of Hou Yifan to some players who are over 2700.

Incidentally does anyone (Peter for instance) know what has happened Hans Arild Runde ?

The Live Top Ratings List hasn't been updated for over 2 months now.

If he has really got tired of doing it (which I would quite understand), couldn't it be handed over to some other dedicated person or better yet to a small team.

This is again made to give Topalov a red bull to the final or another chance to face Anand because in four games surprises are possible, but I hope, Aronian or Kramnik will win and one of them will face Anand.