World Cup: your predictions?
19 November 2009, 14.30 CET | By Peter Doggers | Filed under: Reports | Tags: World Cup
Tomorrow is the opening ceremony, and Saturday already the first game of the first round. The FIDE World Cup 2009, a knockout tournament of 128 players, will be held from November 20th till December 15th, 2009 in Khanty-Maniysk, Russia. What are your predictions?
The World Cup wil consist of 6 rounds of matches comprising two 2 games per round, with the winners progressing to the next round, plus the final seventh (7th) round comprising of four (4) games. The final 7th round will be a match played over 4 games and the winner of the World Cup will be the first player to score 2.5 or more points. The winner will qualify for the 2010 FIDE Candidates Tournament.
Pairings round 1
Table White Fed Black Fed 1 1 GM Gelfand, Boris ISR - 128 IM Obodchuk, Andrei RUS 2 2 GM Gashimov, Vugar AZE - 127 IM Sarwat, Walaa EGY 3 3 GM Svidler, Peter RUS - 126 IM Hebert, Jean CAN 4 4 GM Morozevich, Alexander RUS - 125 IM Abdel Razik, Khaled EGY 5 5 GM Radjabov, Teimour AZE - 124 IM Ezat, Mohamed EGY 6 6 GM Ivanchuk, Vassily UKR - 123 GM Bezgodov, Alexei RUS 7 7 GM Ponomariov, Ruslan UKR - 122 GM El Gindy, Essam EGY 8 8 GM Grischuk, Alexander RUS - 121 IM Sriram, Jha IND 9 9 GM Jakovenko, Dmitry RUS - 120 GM Rizouk, Aimen ALG 10 10 GM Wang, Yue CHN - 119 GM Kabanov, Nikolai RUS 11 11 GM Eljanov, Pavel UKR - 118 GM Al Sayed, Mohamad N. QAT 12 12 GM Karjakin, Sergey UKR - 117 GM Rodriguez Vila, Andres URU 13 13 GM Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar AZE - 116 GM Kosteniuk, Alexandra RUS 14 14 GM Shirov, Alexei ESP - 115 GM Kunte, Abhijit IND 15 15 GM Dominguez Perez, Leinier CUB - 114 GM Smerdon, David AUS 16 16 GM Movsesian, Sergei SVK - 113 GM Yu, Yangyi CHN 17 17 GM Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime FRA - 112 GM Yu, Shaoteng CHN 18 18 GM Alekseev, Evgeny RUS - 111 IM Pridorozhni, Aleksei RUS 19 19 GM Tomashevsky, Evgeny RUS - 110 GM Ivanov, Alexander USA 20 20 GM Wang, Hao CHN - 109 GM Friedel, Joshua E USA 21 21 GM Navara, David CZE - 108 GM Laylo, Darwin PHI 22 22 GM Malakhov, Vladimir RUS - 107 GM Amin, Bassem EGY 23 23 GM Bacrot, Etienne FRA - 106 GM Nijboer, Friso NED 24 24 GM Rublevsky, Sergei RUS - 105 GM Morovic Fernandez, Ivan CHI 25 25 GM Jobava, Baadur GEO - 104 IM Robson, Ray USA 26 26 GM Motylev, Alexander RUS - 103 GM Hess, Robert L USA 27 27 GM Kamsky, Gata USA - 102 GM Antonio, Rogelio Jr PHI 28 28 GM Vitiugov, Nikita RUS - 101 GM Gupta, Abhijeet IND 29 29 GM Bologan, Viktor MDA - 100 GM Adly, Ahmed EGY 30 30 GM Naiditsch, Arkadij GER - 99 GM Hou, Yifan CHN 31 31 GM Bu, Xiangzhi CHN - 98 GM Pelletier, Yannick SUI 32 32 GM Polgar, Judit HUN - 97 GM Pavasovic, Dusko SLO 33 33 GM Nisipeanu, Liviu-Dieter ROU - 96 GM Lupulescu, Constantin ROU 34 34 GM Sargissian, Gabriel ARM - 95 GM Li, Chao b CHN 35 35 GM Onischuk, Alexander USA - 94 GM Flores, Diego ARG 36 36 GM Cheparinov, Ivan BUL - 93 GM Kryvoruchko, Yuriy UKR 37 37 GM Efimenko, Zahar UKR - 92 GM Milos, Gilberto BRA 38 38 GM Sutovsky, Emil ISR - 91 GM Zhou, Weiqi CHN 39 39 GM Najer, Evgeniy RUS - 90 GM Ghaem Maghami, Ehsan IRI 40 40 GM Tiviakov, Sergei NED - 89 GM Iturrizaga, Eduardo VEN 41 41 GM Areshchenko, Alexander UKR - 88 GM Corrales Jimenez, Fidel CUB 42 42 GM Sasikiran, Krishnan IND - 87 GM L’Ami, Erwin NED 43 43 GM Smirin, Ilia ISR - 86 GM Ehlvest, Jaan USA 44 44 GM Baklan, Vladimir UKR - 85 GM Shabalov, Alexander USA 45 45 GM Ganguly, Surya Shekhar IND - 84 GM Filippov, Anton UZB 46 46 GM Fier, Alexandr BRA - 83 GM Khalifman, Alexander RUS 47 47 GM Fressinet, Laurent FRA - 82 GM Sjugirov, Sanan RUS 48 48 GM Meier, Georg GER - 81 GM Petrosian, Tigran L. ARM 49 49 GM Grachev, Boris RUS - 80 GM Bartel, Mateusz POL 50 50 GM Caruana, Fabiano ITA - 79 GM Bruzon Batista, Lazaro CUB 51 51 GM Sokolov, Ivan NED - 78 GM Fedorchuk, Sergey A. UKR 52 52 GM Milov, Vadim SUI - 77 GM Negi, Parimarjan IND 53 53 GM Timofeev, Artyom RUS - 76 GM Leitao, Rafael BRA 54 54 GM Inarkiev, Ernesto RUS - 75 GM Gustafsson, Jan GER 55 55 GM Savchenko, Boris RUS - 74 GM Shulman, Yuri USA 56 56 GM Kobalia, Mikhail RUS - 73 GM Sandipan, Chanda IND 57 57 GM Tkachiev, Vladislav FRA - 72 GM Le, Quang Liem VIE 58 58 GM Tregubov, Pavel V. RUS - 71 GM Akobian, Varuzhan USA 59 59 GM So, Wesley PHI - 70 GM Guseinov, Gadir AZE 60 60 GM Granda Zuniga, Julio E PER - 69 GM Sakaev, Konstantin RUS 61 61 GM Laznicka, Viktor CZE - 68 GM Papaioannou, Ioannis GRE 62 62 GM Andreikin, Dmitry RUS - 67 GM Nyback, Tomi FIN 63 63 GM Mamedov, Rauf AZE - 66 GM Zhou, Jianchao CHN 64 64 GM Amonatov, Farrukh TJK - 65 GM Volkov, Sergey RUS
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Ivanchuk, no question…
hoping for shirov
Ivanchuk will win!!!!!!!
Grischuk
Upsets ? Naiditsch (2689) v Hou, Yifan (2585). He didn’t do very well in Moscow, she’s improving all the time.
I put my chips on Grischuk, his competitive skills are suitable for a K.O. tournament.
Would love an Ivanchuk win but I suspect that all of Ivanchuk , Shirov and Morozevich are too erratic/nervy and one of them will go out in the first round. I expect you will get a good run for your money out of Ponomariov, Grishuk but I predict a win from one of two ultra steady performers
Wang Yue/ Gashimov
First round shocks
Ivanchuk /Bezgodov
Bologan / Robson
Caruana / Bruzon
A. Morozevich
I’d say Gelfand, because he tends to perform pretty well on this kind of tournament, but my heart goes with Svidler.
Many fans of Ivanchuk. And I think he would deserve to win. But he is not the one to win a World Cup of many rounds. I voted for a more reliable Gashimov.
What will be the time control? That’s an important question…
In reponse to the last comment it will be the stupid FIDE one and this does not go in favour of the time trouble addicts with such a short format [ Ivanchuk, Kamsky, Grishuk]
Radjabov isn’t performing very well recently, but a final between him and Shirov would be very nice! However, I think Grischuk will win this event
Anyone with any knowledge of statistics knows that a knock-out tournament like this is some kind of a lottery. But for what it’s worth (very little probably…), Karjakin is my favourite to win this: among those also present at the World Blitz Championship this week, he finished highest (3rd), so he should do well in the many tie-breaks that will have to be played.
This is where King Chucky will show why he is the best player in the world.
There is no way a Cuban can win in Siberia, so I’ll pick Ray Robson. I’d like to see Karjakin win but he might be a little erratic, he’s my real pick because it helps to be good at rapids and blitz in these formats and Karjakin is good at rapids and Blitz…the very reason Gelfand will not win the World Cup.
I am with Teresa, and expect Karjakin to have a good tournament on his ‘home’ soil
A versatile player, able to adapt to the play of many opponents, will have an advantage. Usually the most experienced players have this trait. Stamina will be also a factor, and solid play another, since getting an edge in short matches could be decisive.
Go Gata!!!
Is it possible to see all the names that have been posted in the category “others”
(i wrote Vachier-Lagrave who is progressing so fast!)
I’m sure 1 of the top 6 seeds (Gelfand, Gashimov, Svidler, Morozevich, Radjabov, Ivanchuk) will win, but I’d love to see total dark horse Gata Kamsky (he’s under 2700 and not top 35 in the live ratings) win it. My first round upset is 58 GM Tregubov, Pavel V. RUS – 71 GM Akobian, Varuzhan USA.
I voted for Radjabov. I think he’ll be stinging from his 2-0 loss to Macieja so early last year, which might spur him on to a terrific performance. With regards to possible first round upsets, I’d pick Motylev – Hess as most likely, with Bologan – Adly and Dominguez – Smerdon as other possibilities.
I also second “didfr”, if we could view who’s been voted for in the ‘other’ category that’d be very interesting imo to view which outsiders have been backed.
“And if there were to be, say, a match Aronian-Carlsen, then at this moment, I would put my money on Aronian.”
This is an interesting quote from Kramnik.
Rock solid Wang Yue will go far, he still seems to be underrated.
Otherwise? Grischuk, Karjakin, Gelfand, Gashimov…many possbilities.
My heart is with Chuky, Shirov…
…and Hou Yifan (look out, Naiditsch). Although she really needs to get a better coach (no offense to the actual one) to take the next step. Would be a shame to get stuck at 2600 with those tactical skills…on the other hand as a human in case I prefer her to stay 2600 and be a healthy teenager (”healthy” meaning not too much pressure and having a life, school & friends next to chess)- by now her and her parents seem to take it easy, that’s good. Still, a better coach would do no harm.
F. Nijboer ofcourse
Grischuk IMHO
some quick comments for round 1 pairing :
http://red-white-chess.blogspot.com/2009/11/world-cup-2009-1st-round-with-comments.html
I voted for Morozevich. Probably more because I like his style of play. He doesn’t seem to be in a very good form though…
Evgeny Tomashevsky is a good choice. He is doing extremely well ( among the 3 first in super strong russian championship, winning european championship, for example) and is clearly underrated. The only problem seems a lack of experience in this kind of competition. Grischuk is another strong name, specially if considered his talent.
I will be rooting for Navara!
Ivanchuk is my sentimental favorite. A year ago, his second-half results were spotty and tumulted his rating down to #31 in the world at just over 2700. Most said he had played too much in ‘08, was burnt out, and should take a break.
But he’s play just as active a schedule in ‘09, and climbed back into the top ten with very creative, interesting chess.
Sentimental favorite: Kamsky, although I’ll put my money on Chusky!
Sorry, that should have been Chucky
I hope for Ivanchuk to win, of course.
But with this format luck is the most important factor. Probably no single player has a better chance than 1 in 10.
Anand participated in KO’s 3 times – he won twice and came into the semi-finals when he “failed”. He must be the luckiest man on the planet if all this is just a lottery.
Think about it!
Predictions? Sorry wrong question!
Commercial break:
Sleepy and exhausted by to many semi-slav, grunfelds or similar stuff?
Watch Mateusz Bartel playing the Leningrad Dutch! Here you can see his recipe against Carlsens pet line.
[Event "17th European Team Championship"]
[Site "Novi Sad SRB"]
[Date "2009.??.??"]
[Round "6"]
[Result "0-1"]
[White "Lars Schandorff"]
[Black "Mateusz Bartel"]
[ECO "A04"]
[WhiteElo "2501"]
[BlackElo "2609"]
1. Nf3 f5 2. d3 g6 3. e4 d6 4. exf5 Bxf5 5. d4 Bg7 6. Bd3 Qd7 7. O-O Nf6 8.
Bxf5 Qxf5 9. c4 O-O 10. Nc3 Nbd7 11. Be3 c6 12. Qe2 Rae8 13. Rad1 d5 14. h3
dxc4 15. Qxc4+ Nd5 16. Qb3 Nb6 17. a4 Kh8 18. Rfe1 e6 19. a5 Nxe3 20. Rxe3
Qxa5 21. Rxe6 Rxe6 22. Qxe6 Qf5 23. Qe7 Qf7 24. Re1 Kg8 25. Qe2 Nd5 26. Ng5
Qf5 27. Nf3 Nf4 28. Qc4+ Kh8 29. Re3 Bh6 30. Re5 Nxh3+ 31. Kf1 Qc2 32. Qe2
Qc1+ 33. Qe1 Qxe1+ 34. Rxe1 Ng5 35. Ne5 Bg7 36. d5 cxd5 37. Nxd5 Rf5 38. f4
Bxe5 39. g4 Rxf4+ 40. Nxf4 Bxf4 41. Re7 Bd6 42. Rxb7 Bc5 43. Kg2 h6 44. Rc7
Bb6 45. Rd7 Kg8 46. Re7 Kf8 47. Rb7 Nf7 48. Kg3 Kg7 49. Kf4 Kf6 50. Rd7 Ke6
51. Rd1 Bc7+ 52. Ke4 Ng5+ 53. Ke3 Ke5 54. Rh1 Bb6+ 55. Ke2 Nf7 56. Rf1 Ke6
57. Rh1 Kf6 58. Rf1+ Kg7 59. Rf4 Ne5 60. Kd2 g5 61. Re4 Kf6 62. Ke2 Ke6 63.
Ra4 Kd5 0-1
Of course if it were against Carlsen himself it would be a tiny litle more convincing!
Now I saw the game. It would be more convincing not being against Carlsen, but merely against someone playing somewhat well, something Shandorff simply didn’t — several times!
Nothing about the defence. I’m a Dutch Defense fan myself, but this win had just to do with playing better. Shandorff, other than 100 elo points less, notoriously had a bad day, and (playing like that) would loose even if Bartel played 1…e5 and 2.dxe5 f6, or something alike.
Dont´t take me too serious, Castro
All I wanted to say, now is the time to look at those little stars wherever they may come form – enjoy chess and forget about these Linareschessopening-bs for a while. The first time I saw this setup was in Bartels game I supose- I am not an expert. Maybe somebody out there likes it, too. That all. OK? Some Coffeehouse to go, if you please? An anti-anti-Carlsen is 2.-g6 and now 3.h4?!
“An anti-anti-Carlsen is 2.-g6 and now 3.h4?!”
A double negative means a positive which is a Carlsen opening and I don’t think he plays that.
RADJABOV!!!
Logically, since the World 1-5 are not playing, it should be
GASHIMOV (#6)
who has crept almost unnoticed into the top ten, & is much less wellknown then his compatriots Radjabov & Mamedyarov. He is seriously underestimated.
Since luck is important I would say Khasimdanov or Khalifman but neither seems to be playing.
From the heart, I’d like it to be Hou Yifan, but I think it unlikely.
Khalifman is playing, he is playing GM Fier from Brazil, I was quite shocked to see mr Fier have such a high rating, i must have slept on his performance.
Chinese Power will prevail in Siberia…
you mean electricity comes from China?